CVTracker Newsletter

Curriculum Vitae

Quarterly Newsletter

www.cvtrack.com

Vol. 1. Issue 3

Q3 2004

contents
Editor's Note United States Job Market - Summary Report Networker CVTracker^TM Update

editor's note
Second Terms
Welcome to our third issue of the Curriculum Vitae Quarterly. Apologies to our readers for the delay in this edition of the Curriculum Vitae Quarterly, but the staff made a decision to compile data up to and including the month of October to provide some visualization of the elections and possible correlation between the job market and election. Although it is not clear whether or not one affected the other directly, there may have been a causal effect. We have decided to leave any such correlation discoveries up to you, but provide you with the graphical data. The year has been through some considerably volatile ups and downs with respect to the employment situation, and given that we are immersed in a political climate, it is without doubt that there is reason to believe that there is greater importance placed on published numbers than in non-political years. Clearly, Q3 shows some positive changes for the economic situation for employees and employee wanna-bees. The unemployment rate however shows a mere .2% decline since December of 2003, meaning only 2 out of 1000 people have gained jobs since. Nevertheless, the total unemployment rate stands at 5.5% in October which remains relatively small in the overall scheme of things. Based on the statistical data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we can see a significant fluctuation in the number of people seeking a job in any specific month. For instance, in June we see 75,916,000 people not in the labor force, while in July we had 75,565,000 people not in the labor force. Again in August, we see a dramatic increase to 75,973,000 people not in the labor force. The fluctuation of individuals in the workforce exceeds the change in the actual unemployment rate, hence could be considered a significant contributor to the accuracy of measured and available data. Based on data that's provided, it's hard to determine whether the BLS has accurate enough tests and surveys to provide clear, precise, and efficient data through which it can predict exactly what is happening in the US employment market on a micro level. The room for error in this situation seems abnormally high given the fluctuations in basic assumption data that is necessary to carry out subsequent predictive modelling. However, as we all know, our tax dollars fund a pristine research staff and provide us with relatively solid macro level results. These macro level results is what most people seek from statistics (outside of those seeking specific data for their own political purposes) and hence are adequate. The market has become slightly more lively in the past few months due to the showdown between our two presidential candidates. Although the job market had been a driving force in previous months, as we approached election day, less impact was seen from the job numbers than before - not because they are unimportant, but rather because they are not changing rapidly and have become relatively consistent. Expectations are being met and people are finding some jobs. If you're still looking for work. Fear not. There will be opportunities coming soon, although certain industries are facing challenges. Curriculum Vitae Quarterly will begin to take a look at specific market sectors to visualize job growth and change over time to provide a detailed look at growth sectors versus non-growth sectors in terms of jobs, opportunities, and net income relative to the greater market. Good luck in your search. Ananda Chakravarty Assistant Editor
Note: Visit the most recent updated presentation on contact management software at Download White Papers

job market
Post-Election Job Trends By Art Langdon
The overall job market in Q3 since June has been relatively steady, although the last month has shown considerable increase. More specifically, the number of new jobs created this past month has been a significant booster in terms of actual jobs gained by exceeding the estimated 160,000 suggested by news sources¹. The labor statistics show that a large percentage of gains were found in the construction sector where over 71,000 of the recent 337,000 new jobs were created. The current administration's prediction of 2.6 million jobs by December will require almost 400,000 new jobs to be created in the months of November and December. This is based on the estimated 2.2 million jobs created since October 2003 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) payroll surveys of employers throughout the U.S. Job growth in temporary help services numbered about 48,000, Information services finally turned a corner and gained 16,000 new jobs in October. This group had been regularly draining jobs over the course of Q3, specifically due to losses in the telecommunications industry, although the number of jobs lost has been a steady pace, the jobs available in the information sector has not been significant. The unemployment rate remained relatively unchanged at 5.5% of the total employed labor force. Job growth for Q3 and October (4 months) averaged 189,000 new jobs per month. Looking only at months July through September, there was an average of 140,000 new jobs per month (based on seasonally adjusted numbers from the BLS). The job market as a whole showed hiring rates hovering around 3.3% of the entire job market². Entrants to the workforce in search of jobs have increased. The overall average growth in terms of new jobs created for existing workers is approximately 14,000 new jobs per month for the months of April, May and June². From the unemployment side, the rate has remained relatively stable, fluctuating from 5.4% to 5.6% for the latest quarter. The employment levels have been improving steadily through October, but unemployment remains steady as shown in Figure 1. Employment and Figure 2. Unemployment Rates. There has been an increase in the total workforce count suggesting more entrants in the workforce as well as dropped out entrants returning to the job search. Regional rates are shown in Figure 3. Regional Unemployment Rates with higher rates in states such as Alaska and California. Regional Unemployment Rates with higher rates in states such as Alaska and Oregon. In states such as California, unemployment is targeted in specific areas such as Los Angeles (6.5%). Pacific states are still bouncing back slowly since the 2001 downturn in the economy. A strong figure to examine for determination of job market trends is the Employed-Unemployed Ratio. This number is plotted below in Figure 4. Employed-Unemployed Ratio. The ratio represents the number of people currently employed for each person unemployed. The ratio tends to start at about 16, dips to 15, then slowly builds itself back to the 17+ range. The higher this ratio, the more people have jobs relative to those without jobs. This number is essentially the inverse of the Unemployment Rate and provides an interesting look at how well the job market is changing. Figure 5. Changes in Number of Unemployed is another graph that outlines the basic trendline for the job market today. This graph clearly defines the change in the number of individuals currently unemployed based on BLS data. The graph allows you to pinpoint specific months that had strong job growth as opposed to those which had actual increase in unemployed persons. Note that the graph is an inverted value where positive numbers mean an increase in unemployment, while negative numbers mean a decrease. To summarize the BLS findings, we had a relatively unchanged job unemployment rate at about 5.5%. Employment over the last several months has been consistent and increasing. The overall average growth percentage for jobs has been fluctuating, and an interesting phenomenon can be found when examining Figure 6. Change in Employed & Workforce. As shown, we can see the general trend line for the overall workforce - a combination of both employed and unemployed workers - as a parabolic trend with a large dip in the center indicating the drop in the workforce as a whole. Simultaneously, we can see that Figure 6. shows a strong correlation between Changes in the Employed individuals during the sampled months. As a matter of fact, in the last 19 months that we have had either a positive or negative change in the number of employed individuals, we can see a corresponding change in the total number of individuals in the workforce in 13 of these months (Note: According to BLS data gathering procedures, this does not necessarily correspond to individuals only since some individuals may hold multiple jobs, part time work, and other forms of non-standard work. For purposes of description, we will use this term.) The close correlation suggests a biased result in terms of employed individuals, as more people are entering the workforce during these time periods, with corresponding growth during times of increased employment (or an increased workforce). It is unclear whether this represents a causal relationship, an imperfect data collection method, or pure coincidence since it is based on a small sample of possibilities. New job creation was found in construction, partially due to the hurricanes sweeping through the southeast United States as well as an abundance of new real estate growth. The real estate market has been doing well with housing starts relatively strong throughout Q3. Housing starts fell by 5.7% in October.
Figure 1. Employment¹
Figure 2. Unemployment Rates¹
Figure 3. Regional Unemployment Rates²
Figure 4. Employed-Unemployed Ratio
Figure 5. Changes in Number of Unemployed
Figure 6. Change in Employed and Workforce
¹MSNBC.com, "Forecasters again look for strong job growth", Martin Wolk, Chief Economic Correspondent, Nov. 4th, 2004 ² Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, United States Government, CES ³ Computed Statistics based on historical and US DOL BLS survey results - household surveys, 60000 sample, US DOL state-based survey used for determining state unemployment rates.

networker
That's Not Fair! By Ananda Chakravarty
Statistically speaking, job fairs are not a great way to get a job. On average job fairs have low percentage returns on immediate hires from employers. Not only that, most job fairs - unless specifically designed as a single company job fair - fails to find the necessary qualified candidates that the employer is seeking to fill specific jobs. Job fairs come in all shapes and sizes, and this article will cover just a few of the common sense items related to job fairs - not as a talent scout, but more as a networking tool for the end user. A recent high tech job fair showed results of only 3.5 hires for over 4000 attendees⁴. The small ratio does not provide great results, especially in today's tight job market. Many organizations have begun to avoid job fairs altogether, while others have cut down on their use in finding the right hires. In many cases, experienced individuals are the ones who have the most difficult time finding appropriate job fairs to attend since many job fairs are on-campus job fairs designed for students. The basic job fairs that have come about include the following styles/types: General Job Fair General mean just that. A general job fair has companies who are brought together and set up booths for potential applicants, usually through an outside agency or retail conference/workshop/event sponsorship service. The organization builds a sponsorship list of companies who will attend and charges fees for hosting a booth. The usual cost can be significant for HR departments, but if it nets even a single employee it may have been worth it. The basic function is filling positions, but the fair also serves as both an advertisement mechanism as well as a networking mechanism, where recruiters can network with each other. The general job fair usually has many companies attending, several billboards, goodies and take-home giveaways, raffles, and sometimes seminars. The general job fair operates just as a business trade show or expo and provides the sponsors with the ability to build their databases and fill positions that exist, rather than create new ones or just hire talent. These types of fairs can consist of a wide variety of job opportunities, so job applicants would be wise to thoroughly check over the list, select a few specific company booths to attend and focus only on these. The attendance is relatively large compared to other job fairs, although they also result in fewer hires due to the mix. Hiring managers are sometimes available at these fairs, but usually they are confined to HR personnel. Such fairs are also widely advertised and based primarily on geographical limitations. General job fairs also include minority, diversity, and similar job fairs with only a requirement of minorities, women, or diversity in the workplace requirement being met by candidates. In other respects, they function similarly to those of the general job fair. On-Campus Job Fair The on-campus job fair is usually hosted by a university or consortium of higher education learning institutions. The types of jobs found at such fairs are typically more entry level positions and less experienced ones, but it provides experienced individuals with some advantages in leveraging their background and experience. It is not always the best scenario for the experienced job seeker, though, since many employers are strictly seeking entry level candidates. The fair again is based on sponsorship by the various companies who plan to attend and is set up by booths. These events have a proportionate amount of hiring managers and HR personnel to fill the job criteria and many smaller companies also try to fill positions through these events. The on-campus job fairs have a tendency to be packed with college students and companies are in many cases solicited by the schools to post a booth at the event. The ratio of hires varies from company to company and depends significantly on the amount of entry-level jobs that need to be filled. Corporate Job Fair The corporate job fair is hosted by a single company or a small group of companies seeking to fill their own ranks. In many cases there is a pre-screening process and invitation to such fairs, but sometimes there is a free-for-all opportunity. These fairs are usually hosted by larger organizations with multiple business units and hiring managers from several business units may attend to fill openings within their unit. There is an increased number of qualified hires in such events and by all means are one of the most effective job fairs types for companies - specifically because they can be held locally, provide many qualified, pre-screened candidates, and usually result in more hires than other types. However, these job fairs can also be slightly more costly as the company is required to host it. The corporate job fair also requires that hiring managers be pulled away from their regular tasks to complete the hiring processes. Lastly, these fairs are not as well advertised and does not always draw the best candidates, especially from candidates who are currently working elsewhere, have limited interest in the company, or are not within a reasonable geographic area. One qualification of these job fairs is that they do attract candidates who are interested in either learning more about the company or joining the company - usually a necessary requirement for a strong candidate. The corporate job fairs usually take longer time frames to coordinate, longer time before a hiring process takes place, and usually leads to further interviews rather than on-the-spot hiring. Depending on the level and caliber of the work positions, these types of job fairs can also be used as filtering processes for candidates. Industry-Specific Job Fair The industry-specific job fair is similar to the general job fair but also includes a pre-qualifier for candidates to either have experience in an industry or education leading to possible avenues within that industry. The industry job fair usually is hosted by an external host company that organizes and advertises such events. Companies are solicited to sponsor the event within a specific industry such as biotech, defense or finance. Attendees are usually job seekers who are seeking jobs in that industry or have qualifications from that industry. Some fairs have stringent requirements to be met to attend, others are less stringent and allow a broader mix of attendees. The function of the job fair still is similar to that of the general job fair, and results vary based on industry statistics at the time. Virtual Job Fair The virtual job fair is somewhat different as employers are solicited to post descriptions and positions offered through an online site. Some virtual job fairs are only portals to connect to employer job sites, while others operate in real time with an actual person manning the virtual booths on the other side through some sort of chat system or interactive communication system. Virtual job fairs were a new introduction in just the last decade and as of yet has not been adopted as an effective tool for acquiring candidates and matching jobs to candidates. There are some advantages to virtual job fairs though. These include lower cost of maintenance, no travel fees, lower costs to post and host, and in some cases no costs to man depending on the type of virtual job fair. These takeaways still result in lower returns for number of candidates and in many cases lower quality of candidates except for technical positions. The virtual job fair has been adopted by certain tech-savvy companies and have become both a filter as well as a novel attention getter, but in general have limited added value in finding and placing candidates in requisitions that need to be filled. The various types of job fairs, although set up for matching candidates to employers may be much better as a networking venue. If you happen to know the HR people at various organizations, you can build your network further than you realize. Certain individuals at various firms are always looking for candidates, and by passing on the names of friends or acquaintances can strengthen relationships and build your network further. The job fairs (except for virtual ones) are also great places to hone your interviewing skills. By interacting with the various HR personnel, you can find out what they want, who they are seeking, and whether you will be able to fill current or future slots in these companies. You can also find out a considerable amount about the companies' hiring processes from interacting with other candidates - some of whom are leaving a job that might be the perfect job for you. People interaction is the key and networking is always a continued demand functionality. Chances are unlikely that you'll find your job at the fair, but you will have the chance to present your case, practice your attention grabbing speech, and build a case for hiring you. It's also a great place to distribute your resume to several corporate databases. The job fairs are certainly not all the same, and if you know the general tendencies of the job fair you plan on attending up front, you'll know how much time you should spend attending. If you do your homework up front, you'll also know what companies you should talk with. So unfair or not, the job fair can be useful during your job search - if not to find the job, to do research, practice interviews, and network. Good luck with your search... Happy Networking. Ananda Chakravarty Note: CVTracker, Netmap Software, and myself do not endorse or suggest accessing any of the sites listed. These are provided for your convenient use on an as is basis without any guarantees of functionality. These are all third party sites with no direct affiliation with CVTracker, CVTrack.com, or Netmap Software, Inc.
⁴ http://www.megashow.com/corporate/jobstats.html, Job Statistics 11/08/04

CVTracker^TM update
CVTracker^TM release v.1.9.5 has recently undergone further changes and a new round of testing to validate it's ability to perform as a powerful contact manager and scheduling system for you. Numerous recruiters and headhunters have already downloaded the software while many individuals have decided to put their networks in one place - readily accessible, and integrated with what they want to do. The software now contains most of the major features found in packages such as Act!(r) or Goldmine(r). For less than half the cost, the value obtained is significantly higher enhancing the value of finding a software product geared towards networking and job seeking. CVTracker^TM is also focused on building a job network, not just standard contact management nor a sales force pipeline. There are functionalities that may be shared, such as networking import/export files that can be downloaded and shared amongst members of the same networking group as well as a pipeline style format for delivering a resume and closing an interview opportunity. However, the primary focus is not in helping you to learn new sales techniques. The real focus is in helping you find new employment. The tool is far easier to use than complicated tools with thousands of features such as Act! or Goldmine. CVTracker^TM provides you with powerful search features, contact history management, and easy access to track your contacts, companies, positions, documents, and more! Try it out for a free 30-day trial period and see if it has what you seek. With the fast calendaring function, the easy-to-use data entry, and accessibilty to setting up your target companies - plus goals and objectives settings, it can be a powerful tool for any job seeker. Download the software at www.cvtrack.com


Note: These articles are available for publication and distribution through the internet provided the author's name, copyright, and a link to www.cvtrack.com is included. Print distribution is acceptable with a printed version that includes the author's name, copyright and www.cvtrack.com listed with the article.

You have been sent this newsletter because you had selected the option of receiving the quarterly newsletter when downloading software or documentation from the www.cvtrack.com website or have conveyed your interest in the CVTracker product. You may unsubscribe from this newsletter by sending a blank email to the following email address: unsubscribe@cvtrack.com. We do not send newsletters to individuals or organizations that have not explicitly signed up for such services.

© 2004 Netmap Software Inc. All Rights Reserved.